Low Emissions Projection

High Emissions Projection

Please click here to go to the maps and graphs page, where you can see the likely trends for the West Midlands region.

Compared to the 2002 scenarios, the changes that are likely to occur in both temperature and rainfall appear more extreme than before. There is quite a significant difference in the expected trends depending on the amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere at that time.

A two degree rise in temperature is much different to a six degree rise, with the latter causing severe damage to biodiversity, crops and human health if we are not prepared. Whilst a two degree rise would still cause significant issues, it is more likely that we could adapt and cope with the effects this would have. 

Whether we experience a two or six degree rise, or somewhere in between, it is down to our emissions of CO₂ today that will determine how problematic climate change could be for us and our future generations.   

However, this data also warns us that regardless of our CO₂ emissions, our region will still experience a rise in temperature that as a human race we have never had the experience of dealing with. Therefore, it is equally as important that we adapt to and prepare for the changes that we will see. 

Some of the effects could be beneficial. The costs of winter maintenance of the road network could be reduced; vulnerable people would be at a lower risk from winter cold and fuel poverty; a warmer summer climate could increase opportunities for income from tourism and farm diversification.

However, The Stern Review states that any small initial benefits to developed countries will be outweighed by damage caused by the higher increases in the middle and latter half of this century. Such problems may include increased costs of coping with flooding, risks to vulnerable people from summer heat, the introduction of temperature-related diseases such as dengue fever and West Nile virus and loss of crop production through droughts.

Staffordshire's location might also lead to impacts from the misfortune of others, through forced relocation from coastal areas and from an increasingly arid and unpleasant south east. Under the 'high emissions' projection we can expect fundamental changes to the character of our landscapes and to land use, with a general and marked decline in biodiversity, as some plant and animal species will be unable to adapt or migrate rapidly enough to escape extinction.  Overpopulation could also become an issue, putting pressure on services in the region, some of which may have already experienced pressure from climate change itself.

An increase in the occurrence of extreme weather events, such as storms, strong winds and torrential rain, will lead to increased demands on buildings and infrastructure and an increased risk to vulnerable people. The economic consequences are not predictable with any certainty, but they could (as is discussed in the Stern Review) be very serious, as will the impacts on quality of life.

This is as far as good science can take us in creating climate change scenarios for Staffordshire. Although it may be tempting to interpret these likely trends further, there would be a danger of speculation which the evidence base does not currently support. The unpredictability of some of the effects of climate change, in particular in relation to extreme weather events, is perhaps one of its most dangerous attributes. Every aspect of life in Staffordshire is at risk of severe disruption unless we act now to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions as part of the national plan, and to adapt to the inevitable consequences of climate change.

Key Links and Documents

·         UKCP09

·         UKCP09 – West Midlands Trends

·         The Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the West Midlands

·         The Climate of the UK and Recent Trends

·         Met Office Hadley Centre